Cardano lacks a functional prediction market, hindering ecosystem growth + existing Web3 prediction markets provide very little capital protection, leaving participants vulnerable to investment risks
Predictify reinvents prediction markets with a unique no-loss model, powered by Cardano's POS. This unlocks potential and opens new methods to increase engagement and user benefits.
This is the total amount allocated to Predictify: A Unique, No-Loss Method For Participation In Predictions Markets.
Rajeev K. // rajeev.k3555@gmail.com (Project Lead)
No dependencies since Predictify and Nucast Labs is building this project together.
In the early stages of the project, resources such as time, manpower, and funding are often limited. Open-sourcing a project requires additional effort in terms of managing the community, addressing issues, and integrating external contributions. It may be more efficient to focus on developing a robust and functional product before considering open-sourcing. We do have plans to eventually opensource the protocol.
SDG Goals
8 - Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9 - Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation
17 - Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development
SDG Subgoals
17.19 - By 2030, build on existing initiatives to develop measurements of progress on sustainable development that complement gross domestic product, and support statistical capacity-building in developing countries
9.1 - Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all
9.b - Support domestic technology development, research and innovation in developing countries, including by ensuring a conducive policy environment for, inter alia, industrial diversification and value addition to commodities
Predictify is a predictions market platform that aims to redefine how users engage with predictions. Powered by Cardano's POS architecture, Predictify introduces a unique no-loss model, ensuring that a user's investment is protected. The platform allows users to predict interesting real-world event outcomes and crypto and commodity prices as well. Predictify provides not only a secure and transparent environment for accurate predictions but also delivers a fun and engaging user experience.
With our user-friendly interface and simplified onboarding process, Predictify makes prediction market participation accessible to all regardless of technical expertise. This approach promotes the wider adoption of Cardano by providing an enjoyable and seamless experience that is accessible to everyone, everywhere. The introduction of a Cardano predictions market will help grow the ecosystem and enable users to tap into financial gains through making accurate predictions.
No-loss Predictions
The platform allows users to deposit ADA into the Predictify Stakepool and redeem earned in-game tokens (Not on the blockchain, but inside the protocol) based on their staking rewards after two epochs. Users can then use these tokens to place bets on various predictions without risking their principal deposit. In the event of winning bets, users earn additional in-game tokens, further increasing their token holdings. These tokens can be redeemed for ADA from the rewards pool, which consists of a percentage of stake pool rewards and collected fees. With the ability to convert in-game tokens into tangible ADA rewards, users can engage in prediction activities while maximizing their potential benefits. Predictify provides a secure, transparent, and enjoyable prediction market experience, which will enhance user engagement and driving the growth of the platform.
1. User Deposits:
Users begin by depositing a specific amount of ADA into the Predictify Stakepool. For example, a user deposits 100k ADA.
2. In-Game Token Redemption:
After a period of 2 epochs, the prediction game starts. At this point, users can redeem in-game tokens based on their stake. Let's say the total stake in the pool is 1 million ADA. The user's stake of 100k ADA would entitle them to (100k/1m) * 100 = 10% of the fixed pool of in-game tokens (Each round of prediction will have a fixed pool of in-game tokens). In this case, they receive 10k in-game tokens.
3. Betting:
With their 10k in-game tokens, the user can participate in predictions by betting on various outcomes. The no-loss model ensures that even if the user loses a bet, their principal deposit of 100k ADA would be unaffected.
4. Winning Tokens:
In a winning scenario, let's assume the user wins an additional 5k tokens. Now, they have a total of 15k tokens, which represents 20% of the total tokens for that particular round.
5. Redeeming Tokens for ADA:
The user's 15k tokens can be redeemed for ADA from the rewards pool. The rewards pool consists of 95% of the stake pool rewards and 30% of the fees collected from all the listed markets. Let's assume the rewards pool contains 2000 ADA. The user's share for redemption would be 20% of this pool, which amounts to (20/100) * 2000 = 400 ADA.
6. Withdrawals:
Users can initiate withdrawals of their converted ADA at any time, subject to any platform-specific withdrawal restrictions or policies.
here are the formulas for the key calculations in the Predictify no-loss model:
In-Game Token Redemption:
In-Game Tokens received = (User Stake Percentage / 100) * Fixed Pool of In-Game Tokens
Redeeming Tokens for ADA:
Amount of ADA redeemed = (User's Total Tokens / Total Tokens in the round) * Rewards Pool Amount
This structure ensures a no-loss experience for users while providing them with an engaging and enjoyable prediction market platform. The combination of Cardano's POS and the unique no-loss model offered by Predictify opens up new avenues for users to maximize their engagement and benefits.
Markets:
Predictify offers a thrilling and engaging experience by providing a wide array of prediction products across various categories. Users can immerse themselves in the excitement of forecasting outcomes in:
To ensure maximum interest and excitement, Predictify reserves the right to curate and create prediction markets within the listed categories during its initial months. This allows the platform to align with current trends, ensuring a dynamic and engaging experience for users. By actively curating the markets, Predictify strives to provide a diverse and entertaining range of prediction opportunities, enhancing the overall fun and enjoyment for users as they explore and participate in these exciting prediction markets.
Implementation Steps:
1. User Signs Up:
The user visits the Predictify website and signs up for an account by providing the necessary information, such as username, email address, and password.
2. Cardano Wallet Creation:
Upon signing up, a Cardano wallet is automatically created for the user on the backend. Alternatively, users have the option to manually connect their existing Cardano wallet to their Predictify account.
3. Smart Contract Deployment:
Predictify deploys smart contracts on the Cardano blockchain to manage the prediction markets, betting pools, and distribution of funds. These contracts ensure the secure and transparent execution of the platform's functionalities.
4. Exploring Prediction Markets:
Once logged in, the user can explore the available prediction markets across various categories. Predictify fetches the relevant data from the smart contracts and displays the markets to the user, allowing them to browse and select the markets of interest.
5. Placing Bets:
When the user selects a prediction market, Predictify interacts with the smart contracts to facilitate the betting process. The user chooses their prediction (e.g., "yes" or "no") and enters the desired amount they want to bet. The smart contract deducts the bet amount from their account.
6. Market Expiry and Outcome Verification:
Once the expiry is reached, Predictify uses the oracle contract to fetch and verify the outcome of the prediction from reliable external data sources.
7. Distribution of Funds:
After the outcome is verified, the smart contract calculates the distribution of funds based on the initial percentage each participant had bet. The contract then transfers the winnings to the respective participants' accounts within the Predictify platform.
8. Withdrawal of Funds:
Users can initiate withdrawals of their winnings or remaining funds at any time. Predictify interacts with the smart contracts to process the withdrawal requests and transfer the funds to the users' connected Cardano wallets.
Throughout the implementation, Predictify ensures that the smart contracts handle the management of the betting pools, secure fund transfers, and accurate distribution of winnings. The utilization of smart contracts on the Cardano blockchain enhances the platform's security, transparency, and trustworthiness.
Smart Contract Implementation:
1. Prediction Pool Contract:
The Prediction Pool Contract is responsible for managing the prediction competition and handling the management of user deposits and rewards distribution. It includes functions to initiate a prediction competition, update the competition details (such as the question, options, and expiry date). When users place prediction orders, they make a deposit to the Prediction Pool Contract. The contract tracks the contributions made by each user and keeps a record of the total pool size. It also interacts with the Prediction Oracle Contract to retrieve the competition details and verify the winning outcome.
2. Reward Distribution Script:
Once the prediction deadline is reached, a reward distribution script is executed. This script pulls data from external oracles (such as UMA and Chainlink) to determine the outcome of the prediction competition. It also queries the Prediction Pool Contract to fetch the contributions made by users. Based on the winning outcome, the script calculates the distribution of rewards and updates the Prediction Oracle Contract with the updated prediction competition data, including the winners and their respective rewards.
Overall, the implementation of smart contracts in the Predictify prediction platform enables the automation and secure execution of prediction competitions, user contributions, and reward distributions. These contracts ensure fairness and transparency while leveraging external oracles for accurate outcome verification.
Go to market strategy:
The proposal addresses several key challenges and brings significant benefits to the Cardano ecosystem:
Creation or improvement of different products: Predictify introduces a diverse range of prediction markets across various categories, enhancing the user experience and attracting prediction enthusiasts. This expansion of prediction markets contributes to the growth and adoption of Cardano.
Integrations with other existing services, products, and protocols: Predictify leverages Cardano's POS architecture and smart contracts to provide a secure and transparent prediction market platform. By integrating with Cardano, Predictify utilizes the robust infrastructure of the Cardano blockchain, ensuring the security and trustworthiness of user investments.
Solving a key problem or issue: Predictify's no-loss model addresses the risk of losing invested funds in prediction markets. Users can stake ADA in the Predictify Stakepool, protecting their principal deposits. Even if users lose their bets, their initial ADA deposit remains unaffected. This no-loss feature encourages wider participation and reduces the fear of losing investments.
Impact on the Cardano ecosystem:
Increased adoption and usage of Cardano: Predictify's user-friendly interface and accessible prediction market platform attract users with varying technical expertise. As more users engage with Predictify and utilize Cardano's staking model, it strengthens the Cardano ecosystem and promotes wider adoption.
Enhanced reputation and trust in Cardano: Predictify's integration with Cardano showcases the platform's trust in the capabilities and infrastructure of Cardano. By utilizing Cardano's POS architecture and smart contracts, Predictify ensures security, transparency, and accurate execution of prediction market functionalities. This integration builds confidence and trust among users, investors, and the community.
Financial gains and benefits for users: Predictify provides users with the opportunity to earn rewards through accurate predictions. By participating in prediction activities, users can potentially earn in-game tokens that can be redeemed for ADA from the rewards pool. This incentivizes user engagement and attracts more users to Cardano, contributing to the ecosystem's growth.
In summary, Predictify's prediction market platform, powered by Cardano, enhances the user experience, addresses the risk of losing funds, and promotes wider adoption of Cardano. The integration with Cardano ensures security and transparency, while the potential for financial gains provides additional incentives for users. These factors collectively contribute to the growth and development of the Cardano ecosystem.
To measure the success of Predictify, several key performance indicators (KPIs) can be utilized. Here are some potential KPIs that can be used to assess the project's success:
Number of registered users: This metric indicates the growth of the user base and can reflect the attractiveness and adoption of the Predictify prediction market platform. Increasing numbers of registered users suggest a growing interest in the platform and its offerings.
Number of unique wallets: Tracking the number of unique wallets connected to the Predictify platform provides insights into the level of engagement and participation. It can help determine the reach and retention of users over time.
Volume of prediction markets: Monitoring the volume of prediction markets hosted on the Predictify platform can indicate the platform's activity and popularity. Higher market volumes imply increased engagement and interest from users.
Transaction volume: Measuring the total transaction volume within the Predictify platform indicates the level of user activity and participation. A higher transaction volume suggests increased user engagement and utilization of the platform's features.
Redeemed tokens for ADA: Tracking the number of in-game tokens redeemed for ADA from the rewards pool can demonstrate the value users derive from their participation in prediction activities. Higher redemption rates reflect user satisfaction and the ability to convert tokens into tangible rewards.
External partnerships and integrations: Tracking the number of partnerships and integrations with external services, products, or protocols can demonstrate the platform's ability to collaborate and expand its reach. Strategic partnerships contribute to the growth and adoption of Predictify within the broader ecosystem.
Social media engagement: Monitoring social media platforms for user engagement, including likes, shares, comments, and user-generated content, provides an indication of the platform's visibility, reputation, and user enthusiasm.
By regularly tracking these KPIs and comparing them over time, the success and growth of the Predictify project can be assessed. These metrics provide insights into user adoption, engagement, satisfaction, and the overall impact of the project within the Cardano ecosystem.
We have an innovative and creative approach to sharing the outputs and results of our project, aiming to engage and inform the community in exciting ways. Here are some of our plans:
Predictify Community Blog: We will maintain an active and engaging community blog where we share regular updates, project milestones, and insights into the development process. This blog will serve as a hub for sharing our progress, showcasing new features, and addressing user feedback and questions.
Social Media Engagement: We will leverage social media platforms to share our project's outputs and results. Engaging and visually appealing content, such as infographics, short videos, and user testimonials, will be posted on platforms like Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram. This approach will help create buzz, attract new users, and keep our community informed.
Interactive Community Engagement: We will host AMA sessions, Twitter Spaces, and collaborate with influential figures in the prediction market and blockchain space. Through these interactive platforms, we will answer questions, share updates, and discuss project outcomes in real-time. This approach fosters community involvement, transparency, and amplifies the reach of our project.
By implementing these creative approaches to sharing outputs and results, we aim to foster an engaged and informed community around our project. We believe that transparency, collaboration, and active communication are crucial in building trust and creating a vibrant ecosystem for the future of prediction markets on Cardano.
Our team has the capability to deliver the project with high levels of trust and accountability based on the following factors:
Technical Expertise: Our team at Nucast Labs have extensive technical expertise, having over 30+ years of combined industry experience. Our team's capabilities extend to various areas such as product development, Marketing, backend development, DevOps, UI/UX design, and expertise in Cardano. With a well-rounded skill set. Our deep understanding of blockchain technology, finance, and building scalable applications enables us to handle the challenges of building a prediction market platform.
Proven Track Record: We have a strong track record of successfully delivering projects in the web3 and entertainment domains. One such success story is nucast.io, which showcases our ability to design, develop, and deploy secure and scalable solutions. This track record instills confidence in our ability to deliver a reliable and high-quality prediction market platform.
Accountability Measures: We prioritize accountability throughout our project delivery process.
Regular Updates: We are committed to providing regular updates on the project's progress and key performance indicators (KPIs) through our Medium blog. This transparent approach ensures that stakeholders are well-informed about the project's milestones, achievements, and metrics.
Community Engagement: We actively engage with the Cardano community through various channels such as Twitter spaces, town halls, and AMAs (Ask Me Anything sessions). By fostering open communication and engaging with the community, we address questions, gather feedback, and ensure that stakeholders' voices are heard and considered.
By combining our technical expertise, successful track record, and accountability measures, we are confident in our ability to build a robust and trustworthy prediction market platform. We value the trust placed in us and are committed to delivering a solution that meets the highest standards of quality and reliability.
Main Goals for the Project:
Platform Development: The primary goal is to build a robust and user-friendly prediction market platform. This involves the development and implementation of smart contracts on the Cardano blockchain, ensuring secure and transparent prediction market functionalities. The platform's user interface (UI) and user experience (UX) will be optimized to provide an intuitive and enjoyable experience for users.
No-Loss Model: The project aims to onboard a fresh crowd of users by leveraging the unique selling proposition (USP) of a no-loss model. The goal is to attract users who are interested in prediction markets but are hesitant due to the risk of losing their investments. By offering a no-loss approach, the project aims to provide a safer and more accessible environment for users to engage with predictions.
Marketing Excellence: The project aims to establish itself as a top player in the marketing game within the prediction market space. This involves carefully monitoring user engagement metrics, analyzing marketing campaigns' effectiveness, and adjusting strategies accordingly. The goal is to increase the platform's visibility, attract a wider audience, and drive user acquisition and engagement.
Validation of Feasibility:
To validate the feasibility of the approach, the team will use a combination of methods:
Technical Analysis and Testing: The team will conduct rigorous testing of the protocol to ensure its functionality and scalability to handle the expected volume of transactions. This includes comprehensive testing to validate the smart contracts' reliability, security audits to identify and address any vulnerabilities, and stress testing to assess the platform's performance under high transaction loads.
User Experience Testing: Close beta waves will be conducted to gather user feedback on the platform's UI and UX. This feedback will be used to iterate and improve the user experience, ensuring a seamless and intuitive platform for users.
Market Research and Analysis: Market feasibility will be assessed through comprehensive research and analysis. This will involve studying market trends, conducting competitor analysis, and gathering user surveys to understand user preferences and identify opportunities for differentiation. The insights gained will inform the project's marketing strategies and positioning.
Financial Analysis: A detailed financial analysis will be conducted to assess the project's sustainability and profitability. This analysis will consider operating costs, revenue streams, and return on investment. The financial model will be continuously monitored and adjusted based on market conditions and user feedback.
By employing these methods of validation, the team will ensure the project's feasibility and set the foundation for successful execution. Continuous monitoring, evaluation, and adaptation will be key to ensure the project's alignment with the goals of the Cardano ecosystem and its potential for success.
Timeline for Delivery:
Build the Protocol:
Milestone 1: Protocol Design and Architecture (4 weeks)
Projected cost: 33,333 ADA
Milestone 2: Smart Contract Development (8 weeks)
Projected cost: 83,333 ADA
Milestone 3: Oracle Integration (4 weeks)
Projected cost: 33,333 ADA
Milestone 4: Fiat Integration, Hosting and Legal (6 weeks)
Projected cost: 36,733 ADA
Marketing:
Milestone 1: Marketing Strategy and Planning (3 weeks)
Projected Cost: 16,666 ADA
Milestone 2: Influencer Partnerships and Collaborations (ongoing, with collaborations scheduled throughout the project timeline)
Projected Cost: 16,666 ADA
Please note that the timeline provided is an estimate and subject to change based on various factors, such as the complexity of development, testing, and external dependencies. Regular monitoring and adjustment will be implemented to ensure timely delivery of milestones and project success.
Build the Protocol:
Milestone 1: Protocol Design and Architecture
Milestone 2: Smart Contract Development
Milestone 3: Oracle Integration
Milestone 4: Fiat Integration, Hosting and Legal
Marketing:
Milestone 1: Marketing Strategy and Planning
Milestone 2: Influencer Partnerships and Collaborations
These deliverables, outputs, and intended outcomes for each milestone contribute to the overall success of the project by ensuring a robust protocol, effective marketing strategies, and a thriving community of users engaged in the prediction market platform.
Detailed Budget Breakdown:
Protocol Design and Architecture: 33,333 ADA
Senior Solution Architect 166.67 ADA x 200 Hours
Smart Contract Development: 83,333 ADA
Senior Smart Contract Developer 166.67 ADA x 500 Hours
Oracle Integration: 33,333 ADA
Senior Full Stack Developer 166.67 ADA x 200 Hours
Fiat Integration: 33,333 ADA
Senior Full Stack Developer 166.67 ADA x 200 Hours
3. General Expenses:
4. Contingency: 16,666 ADA
Total Budget: 253,397 ADA
The budget breakdown allocates the proposed budget of 253,397 ADA across the different project components and resources required for successful implementation. It covers the development of the protocol, marketing activities, general expenses, and includes a contingency fund to account for any unforeseen circumstances or additional requirements that may arise during the project.
The budget ensures that there are sufficient resources allocated to each milestone, for paying skilled developers, marketing professionals, and covering other necessary expenses. It also accounts for legal and compliance requirements, hosting and infrastructure costs, and provides a contingency fund to address unexpected challenges or opportunities that may arise during the project timeline.
When considering the value for money for the Cardano ecosystem, we need to evaluate the impact of the project holistically. Here are a few factors:
The cost breakdown we have provided for Predictify reflects our commitment to utilizing resources effectively and efficiently. We firmly believe that Predictify offers significant value to the Cardano ecosystem by redefining predictions markets, promoting wider adoption of Cardano, and providing an engaging user experience. These long-term benefits outweigh the initial costs of development and maintenance, making Predictify a valuable and cost-effective addition to the Cardano ecosystem.
Project Team:
Adnan Khan (Project Lead)
Adnan is an experienced professional in the web3 domain with a strong track record of assisting early-stage startups in building MVPs, managing communities, securing grants, and achieving scalability. His expertise lies in data analytics and web3 development, with a particular focus on on-chain analytics.
Currently, Adnan serves as a research analyst at GravityX Capital, a prominent web3 institutional fund. He has actively collaborated with leading web3 ecosystems and startups such as dYdX, Polygon, Frontier, Bullieverse, among others. Additionally, Adnan is also a three-time Catalyst winner, having completed and closed all three proposals successfully.
Mallikarjun Susarla (Front End Lead)
Mallikarjun is our lead front-end lead with 6+ of professional experience dealing with front-end technologies. Well-versed with popular javascript frameworks and libraries like Vue.js, React.js, Embed.js, etc. He has worked as a lead frontend developer at Findem technologies with 7 years of experience experience in building top-notch products from scratch.
M. Fayaz (Back End and Smart Contracts Lead)
Fayaz is a seasoned full-stack developer at Nucast Labs, with over 4 years of valuable experience in backend development and specialized knowledge in Cardano smart contracts. With a strong passion for building scalable decentralized applications, Fayaz's expertise shines in his ability to lead full-stack teams and implement robust smart contract solutions on the Cardano blockchain. Having previously spearheaded the development of numerous successful Cardano Dapps at Adaxon Pte Ltd
Suprith Shetty (Overall marketing lead, Strategy)
Suprith is our brand and marketing strategist with about 6 years of experience in Digital Marketing, Campaign Management, Brand Development, and Content Development. He has worked with leading product based companies in India and currently working as a product marketing manager in A.P. Moller, Denmark.
Rahul Biswas (UX/UI Designer)
Rahul Biswas, the extraordinary UI/UX designer at Nucast Labs, is an absolute force to be reckoned with. With a remarkable track record of over 4+ years in the industry, he is a true visionary when it comes to crafting stunning user interfaces and ensuring seamless user experiences. His incredible portfolio showcases a multitude of live projects for prestigious companies, where he has breathed life into their products, making them not only visually appealing but also incredibly user-friendly.
Nucast Labs : Successfully built various scalable Cardano dapps. Nucast is proud to host a highly skilled and experienced development team of 15+ members with over 30 years of combined industry experience.