AdaPredict: Cardano Tokens Prediction Market

[GENERAL] Name and surname of main applicant

[GENERAL] Are you delivering this project as an individual or as an entity (whether formally incorporated or not)

[GENERAL] Please specify how many months you expect your project to last (from 2-12 months)

[GENERAL] Please indicate if your proposal has been auto-translated into English from another language

[GENERAL] Summarize your solution to the problem (200-character limit including spaces)

AdaPredict will be a decentralized prediction market for Cardano native tokens, leveraging Charli3 oracle for real-time data. It will enhance token utility, trend forecasting, participation and trust

[GENERAL] Does your project have any dependencies on other organizations, technical or otherwise?

[GENERAL] If YES, please describe what the dependency is and why you believe it is essential for your project’s delivery. If NO, please write “No dependencies.”

AdaPredict will partner with established Cardano ecosystem operators where necessary, such as:

Oracle Integration (Charli3): Essential for real-time data feeds.

Remostart Cardano talent outsourcing team

[GENERAL] Will your project’s output/s be fully open source?

[GENERAL] Please provide here more information on the open source status of your project outputs

We will use the MIT License, allowing for broad reuse and collaboration.

By adopting an open-source approach, we aim to foster community engagement and ensure transparency in the development of AdaPredict.

[METADATA] Horizons

[SOLUTION] Please describe your proposed solution

Currently, the Cardano ecosystem lacks a dedicated platform for predicting the performance and trends of Cardano native tokens. This leaves users, investors and developers without an accessible, transparent mechanism for making data-driven decisions regarding token behaviour, liquidity and price movements within the ecosystem. AdaPredict will be a decentralized platform where users can predict the future price movements, market trends, and adoption rates of Cardano native tokens. By leveraging real-time data from oracles like Charli3, this platform will offer an intuitive and transparent marketplace for users to participate in prediction markets. Users will be able to make, stake and trade on their predictions, contributing to a community-driven model of token analysis.

Our Approach:

We will create a decentralized, transparent prediction market using Cardano’s blockchain technology. The platform will feature:

• Oracle integration for real-time token data.
• User-friendly prediction tools with the ability to stake ADA or native tokens.
• Community incentives for accurate predictions and participation.
• Open-source development to encourage developer contributions and collaboration.

Unique Aspects:

1. Transparency & Decentralization: By using Charli3, all predictions and results are transparent and secured on-chain, reducing manipulation and increasing trust in prediction
2. Native Token Focus: Unlike existing platforms, AdaPredict will exclusively serve Cardano’s ecosystem, boosting engagement with native token
3. Participation & Rewards: Users will not only benefit from accurate insights but also earn rewards for correct predictions, incentivizing more participatio
4. Target users: AdaPredict will engage native token holders, traders, analysts, developers and enthusiasts who will be able to participate and forecast token trends while earning reward

Impact on Cardano:

AdaPredict will enhance native token utility, promote widespread participation in decentralized finance, and improve trust in market outcomes, driving more engagement within the Cardano ecosystem. We will demonstrate success through increased user participation and growth in token utility, and we plan to share these outcomes with the broader community via reports, community updates, and open-source insights. 

[IMPACT] Please define the positive impact your project will have on the wider Cardano community

AdaPredict will significantly contribute to the engagement and utility of Cardano native tokens, promoting transparency and trust in decentralized prediction markets. By offering a user-friendly, transparent platform for Cardano token trend forecasting, the project will create value for traders, token holders and developers within the ecosystem. This increased engagement will drive native token adoption and improve liquidity.

Impact Measurement:

Quantitative: We will track the number of active users, token forecasts made and the volume of native tokens staked in the prediction market.

Qualitative: Feedback from users on the accuracy and trustworthiness of predictions, as well as the perceived fairness of rewards.

Sharing of Outputs: We will share insights and results through:

• Community forums (Cardano Forum, Reddit)
• Social media (Twitter, LinkedIn) for updates and success stories
• GitHub For sharing code and documentation.

[CAPABILITY & FEASIBILITY] What is your capability to deliver your project with high levels of trust and accountability? How do you intend to validate if your approach is feasible?

Our team possesses extensive experience in blockchain development and predictive market analytics, ensuring that we can deliver AdaPredict with high levels of trust and accountability. Our technical success factors include:

1. Team expertise with blockchain-based projects.
2. Our collaboration with Remostart provides access to top-tier remote Cardano developers, allowing us to maintain a high standard of development.
3. Our integration with Charli3 oracle will supply accurate, real-time data feeds, crucial for the platform's reliability.

Steps for Feasibility Validation:

1. Prototype Development: We will develop a functional prototype to validate the market's demand and the prediction accuracy using real-time data.

2. Community Testing & Feedback: Initial testing with a limited user group will gather feedback on the platform’s usability, prediction accuracy and reward mechanisms.

3. Open-Source Transparency: By making our codebase and development processes public, we will build community trust and allow for auditability.

Fund management

I have been a successful business executive with a track record of fiscal responsibility in my over 15 years of business relationships which I certainly will extend beyond the AdaPredict project phase.

For the AdaPredict project proper fund management, We will ensure the following:

• Milestone-Based Disbursements: Funds will be released based on completed milestones.
• Regular Updates: We’ll provide periodic reports on progress and financial use.
• Transparent Documentation: Maintain detailed records of expenses and achievements for accountability.
• Structured and Expert Approach: We will ensure successful delivery of AdaPredict with transparency and reliability.

[PROJECT MILESTONES] What are the key milestones you need to achieve in order to complete your project successfully?

Platform Architecture and Design (Month 1)

Outputs: Complete architectural design documents, including system architecture, database schema and integration plans with Charli3 oracle.

Acceptance Criteria: Architectural designs approved by technical team, ensuring scalability and security standards are met.

Evidence of Completion: Documented architecture diagrams and an internal review report.

Smart Contract Development and Oracle Integration (Month 2-5)

Outputs: 

1. Development and testing of smart contracts required for the prediction market functionality.
2. Successful integration of the Charli3 oracle to provide real-time data feeds.
3. Deployment of the platform on the Cardano testnet for initial testing and validation.

Acceptance Criteria:

1. Smart contracts pass internal testing, aligning with design specifications.
2. Oracle data feeds are operational in real-time, and the platform runs correctly on the testnet.

Evidence of Completion:

1. Code repository commits, test reports and security validation by an external audit team.
2. Testnet launch report, user feedback documentation and performance metrics from the integrated oracle.

Mainnet Launch and Community Engagement (Month 6-8)

Outputs: Full platform launch on the Cardano mainnet, accompanied by a community engagement and marketing campaign.

Acceptance Criteria: At least 100 active users participating in prediction markets within the first month of launch.

Evidence of Completion: Mainnet deployment report, user activity statistics and a summary of marketing outreach efforts.

Project Close-out Report (End of Month 8)

Outputs: Comprehensive project close-out report and a video showcasing the project’s impact on the Cardano community.

Acceptance Criteria: Analysis of project outcomes against initial goals, with documented user feedback and community metrics.

Evidence of Completion: Final report, user engagement data and a published video on community channels detailing project achievements.

[RESOURCES] Who is in the project team and what are their roles?

AdaPredict Project Team

• Ayodeji Adewusi: Project Lead

Role: To oversee the overall project management, ensuring milestones are met and the project stays within budget. Responsible for stakeholder engagement and community outreach.

LinkedIn Profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ayodeji-adewusi-84b99050

• Adelana Adekola: Technical Lead Product Design and Developer

Role: Responsible for platform development, user interface and experience design. 

LinkedIn Profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adelana-adekola-2796b4206. 

• Tomiwa Phillips - Blockchain Developer

Role: Responsible for development of smart contracts and Charli3 integration, and ensuring data security on the Cardano blockchain.

LinkedIn Profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomiwa-philip-33b033243

Yet to Identify: Community Manager 

Role: User engagement, testing, and support. 

• Yet to Identify: Marketing Specialist 

Role: Executing marketing campaigns and creating promotional materials

• Yet to Identify: Data Analyst 

Role: Analyzing market predictions and reporting.

[BUDGET & COSTS] Please provide a cost breakdown of the proposed work and resources

Total Budget: 90,000 ADA

Project Timeline: 8 Months

• Development Costs (45,000 ADA)

1. Blockchain Development (Smart Contracts): Development of decentralized prediction contracts on Cardano, including Charli3 oracle integration = 20,000 ADA

2. Backend Development (APIs and Database Integration): Building APIs for data flow between frontend, blockchain, and oracle = 10,000 ADA 

3. Frontend/UI/UX Design: 

Design and development of user-friendly interface for ease of interaction = 8,000 ADA 

4. Security Audit (Smart Contract): Third-party audit of smart contracts to ensure safety and robustness = 7,000 ADA

• Infrastructure and Software Tools (15,000 ADA)

1. Cloud Hosting & Infrastructure Setup: Setting up scalable backend architecture with reliable cloud services = 8,000 ADA  

2. Software Licenses (Dev Tools, Oracles): Tools and licenses for development and data integration with Charli3 oracles = 5,000 ADA

3. DevOps Services: Optimizing platform deployment and ensuring continuous delivery = 2,000 ADA  

• Marketing & Community Engagement (15,000 ADA)

1. Marketing Campaigns (PR, Ads, Outreach): Promoting AdaPredict within the Cardano ecosystem and beyond = 8,000 ADA

2. Community Management & Engagement: Managing online communities and engaging users across platforms (e.g., Discord, Telegram) = 4,000 ADA

3. Partnership Outreach (Business Development): Building strategic partnerships with Cardano projects and influencers = 3,000 ADA  

• Project Management & Administration (15,000 ADA)

1. Project Management (Agile Planning & Coordination): Coordinating team efforts, timelines, and deliverables = 6,000 ADA 

2. Legal & Accounting Services: Ensuring compliance with regulations and proper fund management, Reporting and Documentation = 7,000 ADA

3. Contingency & Miscellaneous Costs = 3,000 ADA

This breakdown ensures a balanced allocation between technical development, community building, and project management, while maintaining flexibility for potential risks.

[VALUE FOR MONEY] How does the cost of the project represent value for money for the Cardano ecosystem?

The 90,000 ADA budget for AdaPredict represents value for money by focusing on sustainable development and delivering a decentralized prediction market that benefits the Cardano ecosystem in several ways:

1. Competitive Personnel Costs: The salaries for our team are competitive compared with industry standard and typical freelance rates, our HR management experience with Veridaq coupled with our Cardano talent outsourcing partnership with Remostart will help us in attracting top talent while maintaining cost efficiency
2. Long-term Impact: AdaPredict will expand the use cases of the Cardano blockchain by introducing a decentralized prediction market.
3. Technical Resources Justification: Expenses for software licenses, hosting and integration with Charli3 ensure a robust and secure platform, which is critical for maintaining user trust and adoption.
4. Community Engagement Focus: with our dedicated spending to marketing and community building, we aim to engage users early on, encouraging feedback and ensuring that the platform meets their need.
5. Scalability and Ecosystem Growth: The infrastructure and development costs are focused on building a platform scalable to future Cardano native tokens, allowing future integrations without substantial additional costs. This forward-looking approach offers long-term benefits for the Cardano ecosystem, beyond just this project.

Overall, AdaPredict will create a unique value proposition for the Cardano ecosystem by expanding its decentralized application offerings, providing more transaction opportunities, and fostering a broader community, all while maintaining a lean, justified budget.