Last updated 7 months ago
Cardano lacks a Prediction Market offering a highly efficient trading experience comparable to Polymarket or Kalshi.
Develop and deploy a hybrid-decentralized CLOB for our Cardano-based prediction market, enabling limit orders, off-chain matching, and on-chain settlement.
This is the total amount allocated to Bodega Market V4 - Central Limit Order Book (CLOB).
Please provide your proposal title
Bodega Market V4 - Central Limit Order Book (CLOB)
Enter the amount of funding you are requesting in ADA
370000
Please specify how many months you expect your project to last
7
Please indicate if your proposal has been auto-translated
No
Original Language
en
What is the problem you want to solve?
Cardano lacks a Prediction Market offering a highly efficient trading experience comparable to Polymarket or Kalshi.
Supporting links
Does your project have any dependencies on other organizations, technical or otherwise?
No
Describe any dependencies or write 'No dependencies'
No dependencies
Will your project's outputs be fully open source?
Yes
License and Additional Information
Bodega Labs has open-sourced their V1 prediction Market and is planning to open-source all versions.
Please choose the most relevant theme and tag related to the outcomes of your proposal
DeFi
Describe your established collaborations.
We're actively collaborating with a range of innovative projects to enhance our ecosystem and drive adoption across various domains. Here's an overview of our established collaborations: USDM, DexHunter, Vespr wallet, Snek, Xerberus, ADA Handle, FluidTokens, Strike, Mercuryo, Lace wallet, Farmroll, Sundial, Torram, Clarity protocol, Midnight, Delta DeFi, Keystone, Flow
Describe funding commitments.
Our team at Bodega Labs consists of experienced Cardano developers with a track record in the ecosystem, we bootstrapped Bodega Market from the start with no catalyst funding. We ensure trust through transparent milestones, open-source code repositories, and independent audits.
Describe your key performance metrics.
Current KPIs
-Total Value Locked (TVL): 3.7M USD (counting staking + ADA value locked in protocol)
-Total Onchain Transactions: 3k+ per month
-Total betting volume since launch (v1,v2,v3) : 1,1M ADA
-Number of active users: 1234 holders / 100+ market creators
-Holders revenue distribution (staking + market creation): 40k ADA+
-Total traded volume on BODEGA/ADA pair since launch: 23.59M ADA
Please describe your proposed solution and how it addresses the problem
Hybrid-Decentralized Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) for a Cardano-Based Prediction Market
The core problem facing Cardano in 2025 is its persistent lag in mainstream adoption, exacerbated by the absence of a highly competitive Dapps and Prediction Markets platform comparable to industry leaders like Polymarket or Kalshi. Despite Cardano's advancements in scalability (e.g., Hydra and upcoming Leios upgrades achieving 11,000+ TPS), DeFi integrations (e.g., as a Bitcoin liquidity layer), and privacy features (via Midnight's zero-knowledge proofs and partnerchains), the ecosystem lacks a flagship application that can attract non-crypto users en masse. Prediction markets, which allow betting on real-world events like elections, sports, or economic outcomes, have proven to be "killer apps" for blockchain adoption. Polymarket handled billions in volume during 2024 peaks but saw trading dwindle and user declines in 2025, while Kalshi faces regulatory hurdles and similar user attrition. Without such a market, Cardano misses out on viral, event-driven engagement that could onboard hundreds of thousands of users, boost total value locked (TVL), and elevate ADA's utility.
Our proposed solution is to develop and deploy a hybrid-decentralized Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) for a Cardano-based prediction market. This system enables efficient, high-volume trading of outcome tokens (e.g., "Yes/No" shares representing event probabilities) by combining off-chain order matching for speed and cost-efficiency with on-chain settlement for security and transparency. Drawing inspiration from Polymarket's CLOB model, which balanced centralized efficiency with blockchain verifiability to achieve sub-second trades and tight liquidity during high-profile events, this approach addresses Cardano's eUTxO model limitations (e.g., concurrency issues in pure on-chain order books) while leveraging its strengths like low fees and interoperability.
Detailed Description of the Solution
The hybrid-decentralized CLOB acts as the trading engine for the prediction market, where users buy/sell outcome tokens that pay out based on event resolutions (e.g., "Will Bitcoin hit $150K by end-2025?" with tokens priced as probabilities). Unlike automated market makers (AMMs) common in DeFi, which suffer from impermanent loss and poor liquidity in low-volume markets, a CLOB supports limit orders (e.g., "Buy at $0.45") for precise trading, making it ideal for prediction markets where prices reflect crowd wisdom.
How This Solution Addresses the Problem
This CLOB-powered prediction market directly combats Cardano's adoption shortfall by creating a compelling, user-friendly entry point that rivals Polymarket (which saw volume struggles in 2025 post-2024 highs) and Kalshi (grappling with user declines and legal issues), while capitalizing on Cardano's untapped potential. As of mid-2025, Cardano boasts 2000+ projects, TVL all-time highs, and catalysts like Midnight's 24B token airdrop (claiming 470M+ in first day), Bitcoin DeFi integration, and scaling via Hydra/Leios 2 sources, yet no native prediction market exists to drive viral growth.
**Boosting Competitiveness and Liquidity:**The hybrid CLOB offers superior efficiency, near-instant trades, low fees, and advanced features, outpacing Polymarket's Polygon-based model (which faced user drops despite $9M+ volumes on niche markets) and Kalshi's regulated but slower centralized setup. By enabling liquid trading (e.g., via BTC liquidity bridges), it attracts professional bettors and DeFi users, potentially capturing 10-20% of the $10B+ global prediction market share. This creates tight spreads and high volumes, making Cardano's market more appealing than competitors' waning activity.
In essence, this solution transforms Cardano from a technically advanced but under-adopted chain into a vibrant ecosystem with a flagship app that rivals and competes directly with Polymarket/Kalshi, onboarding users through engaging, real-world utility while amplifying 2025's bullish catalysts. If refined further (e.g., with prototypes), it could launch as a game-changer by early 2026.
Please define the positive impact your project will have on the wider Cardano community
Driving Mass Onboarding: Prediction markets are inherently viral, tying into real-world events (e.g., 2026 Olympics or crypto prices) to draw mainstream users. With fiat on-ramps and simple wallets, non-crypto audiences onboard seamlessly: deposit via credit card, bet on familiar topics, and discover Cardano's DeFi (e.g., atomic swaps to ADA). Gamified elements and privacy retain users, while event-driven hype (like Polymarket's election surges) could add 200K-500K users in Year 1, mirroring Polymarket's 500K+ onboarding but on Cardano's scalable base. This Trojan horse effect exposes users to ADA staking, governance, and Bitcoin DeFi, boosting ecosystem TVL (recently at ATHs) and adoption metrics.
What is your capability to deliver your project with high levels of trust and accountability? How do you intend to validate if your approach is feasible?
Our team at Bodega Labs consists of experienced Cardano developers with a track record in DeFi protocols, we bootstrapped Bodega Market from the start with no catalyst funding. We ensure trust through transparent milestones, open-source code repositories, and independent audits.
Feasibility will be validated via:
-Prototyping in the first milestone to test core matching logic.
-Security audits by reputable firms.
-Testnet deployments for community feedback.
-Regular progress reports shared on Cardano forums and GitHub.
Milestone Title
Milestone 1 — Protocol Spec & Architecture
Milestone Outputs
Protocol specifications: Define the market lifecycle, order schema (price ticks, size, expiry, nonce), settlement/batching, order matching, fees.
UTxO/state diagrams (markets, outcomes, orders, settlement).
Acceptance Criteria
A public repo contains specs, diagrams, and PR history. "Design readout" notes and a finalized fee/parameter table are included. Reviewers can verify that the documentation is complete and unambiguous, ensuring clarity and transparency in the project.
Evidence of Completion
Evidence includes a public GitHub repo with the protocol spec, UTxO/state diagrams, and PR history showing iterative development and community review. A PDF export from docs.projectcatalyst.io provides the finalized spec. Meeting notes from design readouts detail decisions and fee structure. Reviewer verification in PR comments confirms complete, clear docs.
Delivery Month
1
Cost
42000
Progress
10 %
Milestone Title
Milestone 2 — Smart Contracts v0.1 (Aiken)
Milestone Outputs
Aiken scripts: Market registry, Outcome token mint/burn, Order UTxO validation, Settlement skeleton, Cancel/Expire.
Unit/property tests; script-size & fee/cost reports; reference inputs/inline datums usage.
Acceptance Criteria
The CI is showing green on both unit and property tests, the cost analysis report has been committed to the repository, and test vectors for order creation, cancellation, settlement happy paths and reverts are ready.
Evidence of Completion
The Project Catalyst repo on docs.projectcatalyst.io lacks specific evidence for CI badges, size/cost CSV, or test coverage summaries, focusing instead on Cardano's decentralized innovation fund, proposal processes, and community governance tools.
Delivery Month
2
Cost
92000
Progress
30 %
Milestone Title
Milestone 3 — Deterministic Matcher/Relayer v0.1
Milestone Outputs
Deterministic L2 matching engine (price–time priority), batch composer, chain adapter (Ogmios/UTXORPC), REST/WebSocket API.
Determinism test harness (same inputs ⇒ same matches); performance logs.
Acceptance Criteria
Acceptance criteria: Repro test passes consistently on two independent runs across separate hosts, confirming reliability. APIs fully comply with OpenAPI specification standards. Local end-to-end settlement executes successfully on preprod, validating all components.
Evidence of Completion
Evidence comprises the project repository containing all source code, test harness logs demonstrating deterministic behavior, the OpenAPI JSON specification defining the API endpoints, transaction IDs recorded on the Cardano testnet to verify settlement, and comprehensive documentation hosted on docs.projectcatalyst.io, detailing the implementation, testing process, and API usage for transparency and reproducibility.
Delivery Month
1
Cost
55000
Progress
50 %
Milestone Title
Milestone 4 — TypeScript SDK & Reference dApp v0.1
Milestone Outputs
The CLOB-SDK enables developers to build, sign, and submit orders with real-time order book and trade streams, plus tick math for precision, while the Next.js dApp offers a market list, order ticket, depth chart, trades list, and positions tab for secure DeFi trading.
Acceptance Criteria
Watch our demo video to learn how to create an order, process a partial fill, and cancel it seamlessly. The README quick-start offers partners a concise guide for minimal integration, ensuring smooth setup.
Evidence of Completion
The project provides substantial evidence of progress, including a tagged release, a demo video showcasing functionality, a comprehensive docs site at docs.projectcatalyst.io, and a live preprod demo URL for testing, demonstrating active development and transparency.
Delivery Month
1
Cost
58000
Progress
60 %
Milestone Title
Milestone 5 — Testnet Pilot + Security Review & Hardening
Milestone Outputs
Curated markets; faucet scripts; monitoring dashboards; bug bash.
Maker rebate parameters for pilot (documented).
External light audit and peer review; threat model; fixes and added tests/fuzzing.
Acceptance Criteria
≥5 markets live on preprod; ≥25 unique wallets interact.
Pilot report with metrics: orders/day, trades/day, median spread, maker % of filled volume.
Published review report + remediation log; all “High/Critical” addressed.
Updated test suite/coverage; new fuzz cases merged.
Evidence of Completion
Tx hashes, Grafana screenshots, pilot report PDF. docs.projectcatalyst.io
audit PDF, issues/PRs, coverage report. docs.projectcatalyst.io
Delivery Month
1
Cost
68000
Progress
80 %
Milestone Title
Milestone 6 — Mainnet Launch & Handover
Milestone Outputs
Launch a comprehensive runbook to streamline operations, establish robust monitoring and alerts for system reliability, implement governance templates to standardize resolvers and fee structures, and deliver finalized documentation with detailed tutorials for seamless adoption and clarity.
Acceptance Criteria
The mainnet deployment has been successfully executed with specific tags assigned for tracking, and the initial markets are now live, featuring fully verifiable transaction IDs to ensure transparency and integrity. The comprehensive documentation hub has been officially published, providing detailed resources and guides for users and developers. Additionally, the handover checklist has been meticulously completed, ensuring a smooth transition and operational readiness across all systems and processes.
Evidence of Completion
mainnet tx hashes (Live data of on chain activity), docs site, guides and runbook PDF, tag links. docs.projectcatalyst.io
Delivery Month
1
Cost
55000
Progress
100 %
Please provide a cost breakdown of the proposed work and resources
On behalf of our project team, we’ve put together a revised cost breakdown for our 7-month development timeline, totaling ₳370,000, as outlined in our milestones. With our current team of six and plans to bring on an additional developer in the next two months,around week 8 of our 28-week schedule, we’ve carefully allocated funds to cover salaries, development, R&D, legal, security, pilot/testing, and deployment. This adjustment accounts for the new hire contributing for roughly five months, boosting our capacity for critical technical deliverables.
Salaries are our biggest investment, coming in at ₳250,000, or about 68% of the budget. This covers our six-person team, developers, a project manager, and supporting roles, for the full seven months, plus the new developer for five months, totaling around 47 person-months. We’re estimating an average monthly salary of ₳5,300 per person, which aligns with industry standards for a skilled blockchain team working on Cardano (this is even below average). The new developer will join us around the start of Milestone 2, helping tackle the heavy lifting on smart contracts, the matcher/relayer, and SDK development, ensuring we stay on track for our ambitious deliverables.
For development, we’re allocating ₳25,000, roughly 7% of the budget. This covers tools, software licenses, and cloud infrastructure for things like the Ogmios/UTXORPC adapter, APIs, and monitoring dashboards, plus testnet operations for our Aiken smart contracts, matcher engine, and TypeScript SDK/dApp in Milestones 2, 3, and 4. With the new developer onboard early, we’re leaning more on in-house coding to reduce external tool costs, keeping our setup lean while maintaining robust testing environments.
R&D is budgeted at ₳20,000, about 6% of the total, focusing on the protocol specs, UTxO diagrams, and determinism testing for the matching engine in Milestones 1 and 3. This includes designing the market lifecycle, order schemas, and fee structures, as well as building test harnesses to ensure consistent outcomes. The new hire won’t significantly change this category, as our core team is driving these early-stage research efforts, but their later contributions will help refine testing.
Legal and compliance costs are set at ₳20,000, around 6% of the budget, to handle governance reviews, settlement rules, IP protection, and templates for resolvers and fees in Milestones 1 and 6. These costs are unaffected by the new hire, as they’re tied to specific legal deliverables needed for Cardano ecosystem compliance and our mainnet launch. We’re keeping this lean to focus resources on development.
Security and audit expenses are planned at ₳35,000, or 9% of the budget, mainly for the external audit, peer review, threat modeling, and fuzzing in Milestone 5. The new developer will pitch in on additional tests and fuzzing cases, strengthening our in-house efforts, but the bulk of this cost is for the external audit and remediation to address any high/critical issues, ensuring a secure testnet pilot and mainnet launch.
For the testnet pilot and testing, we’ve allocated ₳15,000, about 4% of the budget, to support Milestone 5’s curated markets, faucet scripts, dashboards, and metrics like orders and trades per day. The new developer’s work on the SDK and dApp will improve code stability for the pilot, but this budget focuses on testnet operations, bug bashes, and producing our pilot report and demo materials to showcase progress.
Finally, deployment and miscellaneous costs are set at ₳5,000, roughly 1% of the budget, covering the mainnet launch runbook, monitoring, alerts, final docs, tutorials, and handover checklist in Milestone 6, plus minor expenses like testnet fees and pilot marketing. The new developer’s contributions to testing and documentation help us trim this category slightly, redirecting savings to salaries.
This breakdown keeps us at ₳370,000, matching our milestone funding (₳42,000 + ₳92,000 + ₳55,000 + ₳58,000 + ₳68,000 + ₳55,000). Bringing on the new developer early strengthens our technical output, letting us deliver on our milestones while staying within budget. If you need more details on salaries or the new hire’s role, we’re happy to refine this further!
How does the cost of the project represent value for the Cardano ecosystem?
The implementation of a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) for Bodega Market represents a strategic investment in Cardano's DeFi ecosystem, where the project's costs are directly aligned with delivering outsized value through enhanced trading efficiency, user growth, and long-term sustainability. As Bodega Market's representative, I'll break this down step-by-step, focusing on how the funding request translates to tangible benefits for Cardano, including attracting new users, bolstering the DeFi landscape, and fostering innovation in prediction markets.
Bodega Market is an open-source prediction market protocol on Cardano, enabling users to forecast real-world events (e.g., elections, sports, crypto prices) in a secure, low-cost environment. Currently, many blockchain prediction markets rely on Automated Market Makers (AMMs), which can suffer from slippage, inefficient pricing, and limited order types. Our proposal seeks funding to integrate a CLOB system, which introduces advanced features like limit orders, market orders, and real-time order matching, mirroring traditional exchanges but on-chain.The total funding request is calibrated to cover essential development phases: smart contract audits, frontend/backend integration, testing, and initial liquidity incentives. While exact figures are detailed in our Project Catalyst submission (typically in the range of mid-six-figure ADA equivalents for similar DeFi enhancements), the budget prioritizes efficiency—leveraging Cardano's existing infrastructure to minimize overhead. This isn't speculative spending; it's a targeted allocation where every ADA invested yields measurable ecosystem returns, as evidenced by similar Catalyst-funded projects that have boosted TVL and user adoption.
Prediction markets are a high-engagement sector, with global platforms like Polymarket seeing millions in volume during peak events. By adding CLOB functionality, Bodega becomes a more professional-grade tool, appealing to traders from other chains (e.g., Ethereum, Solana) who seek better liquidity and precision without high fees.Projected User Influx: Conservative estimates suggest this upgrade could attract thousands of new users to Cardano within the first year post-launch, based on Bodega's V2 growth (which saw rapid adoption after its April 2025 release) and industry benchmarks. For instance, integrating CLOB could mirror the user surge seen in DeFi CLOB Prediction Markets like Polymarket. These users aren't just transient; they onboard via Cardano wallets, stake ADA, and engage with other dApps, creating a flywheel effect.
Why Value for Money? The development cost is a fraction of the potential TVL increase, aiming for $50M in locked assets initially, far exceeding the funding outlay. This represents exceptional ROI, as new users contribute to network fees, governance participation, and overall vitality.
Cardano's DeFi ecosystem is already robust, with lending/borrowing protocols, but it lacks advanced trading primitives in niche areas like prediction markets. CLOB implementation positions Bodega as a flagship application, making Cardano more competitive against chains with mature order-book systems.Improved Liquidity and Trading Experience: CLOB enables tighter spreads, reduced slippage, and better price discovery, which could increase trading volume by 5–10x. This attracts institutional interest (e.g., via partnerships like our recent DraperU pitch, supported by Catalyst) and integrates with existing Cardano tools, such as using $BODEGA as collateral on lending protocols for passive income opportunities.
Broader Ecosystem Benefits: By tapping into the $10B+ global prediction market space, Bodega draws in diverse participants, forecasters, hedgers, and speculators, who then explore Cardano's broader DeFi (e.g., DEXs, NFTs). This creates network effects: higher on-chain activity boosts ADA demand, enhances security through more staking, and accelerates adoption of upcoming upgrades like Midnight or Hydra scaling.
Value Representation: The project's costs are "pay once, benefit forever", open-source code means other Cardano dApps can fork or integrate our CLOB framework, amplifying the funding's impact across the ecosystem. Compared to off-chain alternatives, this is cost-effective, with audits and dev work leveraging Cardano's low fees (under $0.01 per tx) to keep ongoing operations sustainable.
To ensure the funding delivers value, we've incorporated milestones: phased releases with community audits, KPI tracking (e.g., user acquisition metrics), and integration with Cardano's governance. If funded, Bodega commits to revenue-sharing models (e.g., platform fees funneled back to ADA holders via treasury contributions).
In summary, this project's costs aren't an expense, they're an investment yielding exponential returns. By elevating Bodega to a top-tier prediction market, we bring fresh capital, users, and innovation to Cardano, solidifying its position as a leading DeFi hub. We're grateful for Catalyst's support in past initiatives and excited to demonstrate how this upgrade will propel the ecosystem forward. If you'd like more details on the budget breakdown or proposal, check our Catalyst submission or reach out!
Terms and Conditions:
Yes
Our team brings extensive experience in Cardano development and active participation in its community. We are now poised to leverage this expertise to elevate our protocol to new heights. Our team has grown to six members, comprising four developers, Bodega intern, and our CEO, Cory Collombet. We are actively seeking an additional developer to join our dynamic team.Cory Collombet, also known as Monroe, leads the project with vision and expertise. With a background in business and a Master’s degree in Economics, Cory has been an integral part of the Cardano community for over four years. Our lead developer, Jougan, is a long-standing open-source contributor to Cardano and has worked with third-party code auditing firms within the ecosystem. Based in Vietnam, Jougan prefers to remain anonymous due to the uncertain legal landscape in the region. However, his extensive track record and code contributions to Bodega are publicly available on GitHub.