Last updated 4 months ago
Cardano lacks a Prediction Market offering a highly efficient trading experience comparable to Polymarket or Kalshi.
Develop and deploy a hybrid-decentralized CLOB for our Cardano-based prediction market, enabling limit orders, off-chain matching, and on-chain settlement.
Please provide your proposal title
Bodega Market V4 - Central Limit Order Book (CLOB)
Enter the amount of funding you are requesting in ADA
200000
Please specify how many months you expect your project to last
6
Please indicate if your proposal has been auto-translated
No
Original Language
en
What is the problem you want to solve?
Cardano lacks a Prediction Market offering a highly efficient trading experience comparable to Polymarket or Kalshi.
Supporting links
Does your project have any dependencies on other organizations, technical or otherwise?
No
Describe any dependencies or write 'No dependencies'
No dependencies
Will your project's outputs be fully open source?
Yes
Please provide details on the intellectual property (IP) status of your project outputs, including whether they will be released as open source or retained under another licence.
MIT License
Please choose the most relevant theme and tag related to the outcomes of your proposal
DeFi
Describe what makes your idea innovative compared to what has been previously launched in the market (whether by you or others).
Bodega Market is unique in its genre. It’s the first prediction market to launch on Cardano and the first to introduce a fully decentralized bookmaker model that allows users to become market creators and earn fees. This is what truly differentiates Bodega from other prediction markets.Prediction markets are one of the few types of dApps with the potential to drive mass adoption. Cardano needs to ensure it has a strong, competitive prediction market in its ecosystem.
Describe what your prototype or MVP will demonstrate, and where it can be accessed.
We already have the platform built, this new hybrid dapp will allow a faster trading with deeper liquidity to become more competitive. Our V3 can be found here: https://v3.bodegamarket.io/?tab=all
Describe realistic measures of success, ideally with on-chain metrics.
We can adopt similar KPIs to those established with the Cardano Builder DAO.
These are realistic goals for the next 6 months:
Please describe your proposed solution and how it addresses the problem
Hybrid-Decentralized Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) for a Cardano-Based Prediction Market
The core problem facing Cardano in 2025 is its persistent lag in mainstream adoption, exacerbated by the absence of a highly competitive Dapps and Prediction Markets platform comparable to industry leaders like Polymarket or Kalshi. Despite Cardano's advancements in scalability (e.g., Hydra and upcoming Leios upgrades achieving 11,000+ TPS), DeFi integrations (e.g., as a Bitcoin liquidity layer), and privacy features (via Midnight's zero-knowledge proofs and partnerchains), the ecosystem lacks a flagship application that can attract non-crypto users en masse. Prediction markets, which allow betting on real-world events like elections, sports, or economic outcomes, have proven to be "killer apps" for blockchain adoption. Polymarket handled billions in volume during 2024 peaks but saw trading dwindle and user declines in 2025, while Kalshi faces regulatory hurdles and similar user attrition. Without such a market, Cardano misses out on viral, event-driven engagement that could onboard hundreds of thousands of users, boost total value locked (TVL), and elevate ADA's utility.
Our proposed solution is to develop and deploy a hybrid-decentralized Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) for a Cardano-based prediction market. This system enables efficient, high-volume trading of outcome tokens (e.g., "Yes/No" shares representing event probabilities) by combining off-chain order matching for speed and cost-efficiency with on-chain settlement for security and transparency. Drawing inspiration from Polymarket's CLOB model, which balanced centralized efficiency with blockchain verifiability to achieve sub-second trades and tight liquidity during high-profile events, this approach addresses Cardano's eUTxO model limitations (e.g., concurrency issues in pure on-chain order books) while leveraging its strengths like low fees and interoperability.
Detailed Description of the Solution
The hybrid-decentralized CLOB acts as the trading engine for the prediction market, where users buy/sell outcome tokens that pay out based on event resolutions (e.g., "Will Bitcoin hit $150K by end-2025?" with tokens priced as probabilities). Unlike automated market makers (AMMs) common in DeFi, which suffer from impermanent loss and poor liquidity in low-volume markets, a CLOB supports limit orders (e.g., "Buy at $0.45") for precise trading, making it ideal for prediction markets where prices reflect crowd wisdom.
How This Solution Addresses the Problem
This CLOB-powered prediction market directly combats Cardano's adoption shortfall by creating a compelling, user-friendly entry point that rivals Polymarket (which saw volume struggles in 2025 post-2024 highs) and Kalshi (grappling with user declines and legal issues), while capitalizing on Cardano's untapped potential. As of mid-2025, Cardano boasts 2000+ projects, TVL all-time highs, and catalysts like Midnight's 24B token airdrop (claiming 470M+ in first day), Bitcoin DeFi integration, and scaling via Hydra/Leios 2 sources, yet no native prediction market exists to drive viral growth.
**Boosting Competitiveness and Liquidity:**The hybrid CLOB offers superior efficiency, near-instant trades, low fees, and advanced features, outpacing Polymarket's Polygon-based model (which faced user drops despite $9M+ volumes on niche markets) and Kalshi's regulated but slower centralized setup. By enabling liquid trading (e.g., via BTC liquidity bridges), it attracts professional bettors and DeFi users, potentially capturing 10-20% of the $10B+ global prediction market share. This creates tight spreads and high volumes, making Cardano's market more appealing than competitors' waning activity.
In essence, this solution transforms Cardano from a technically advanced but under-adopted chain into a vibrant ecosystem with a flagship app that rivals and competes directly with Polymarket/Kalshi, onboarding users through engaging, real-world utility while amplifying 2025's bullish catalysts. If refined further (e.g., with prototypes), it could launch as a game-changer by early 2026.
Please define the positive impact your project will have on the wider Cardano community
Driving Mass Onboarding: Prediction markets are inherently viral, tying into real-world events (e.g., 2026 Olympics or crypto prices) to draw mainstream users. With fiat on-ramps and simple wallets, non-crypto audiences onboard seamlessly: deposit via credit card, bet on familiar topics, and discover Cardano's DeFi (e.g., atomic swaps to ADA). Gamified elements and privacy retain users, while event-driven hype (like Polymarket's election surges) could add 200K-500K users in Year 1, mirroring Polymarket's 500K+ onboarding but on Cardano's scalable base. This Trojan horse effect exposes users to ADA staking, governance, and Bitcoin DeFi, boosting ecosystem TVL (recently at ATHs) and adoption metrics.
What is your capability to deliver your project with high levels of trust and accountability? How do you intend to validate if your approach is feasible?
Our team at Bodega Labs consists of experienced Cardano developers with a track record in DeFi protocols, we bootstrapped Bodega Market from the start with no catalyst funding. We ensure trust through transparent milestones, open-source code repositories, and independent audits.
Feasibility will be validated via:
-Prototyping in the first milestone to test core matching logic.
-Security audits by reputable firms.
-Testnet deployments for community feedback.
-Regular progress reports shared on Cardano forums and GitHub.
Milestone Title
Protocol Spec & Architecture
Milestone Outputs
Protocol specifications: Define the market lifecycle, order schema (price ticks, size, expiry, nonce), settlement/batching, order matching, fees.
UTxO/state diagrams (markets, outcomes, orders, settlement).
Acceptance Criteria
A public repo contains specs, diagrams, and PR history. "Design readout" notes and a finalized fee/parameter table are included. Reviewers can verify that the documentation is complete and unambiguous, ensuring clarity and transparency in the project.
Evidence of Completion
Evidence includes a public GitHub repo with the protocol spec, UTxO/state diagrams, and PR history showing iterative development and community review. A PDF export from docs.projectcatalyst.io provides the finalized spec. Meeting notes from design readouts detail decisions and fee structure. Reviewer verification in PR comments confirms complete, clear docs.
Delivery Month
1
Cost
20000
Progress
10 %
Milestone Title
Smart Contracts v0.1 (Aiken)
Milestone Outputs
Aiken scripts: Market registry, Outcome token mint/burn, Order UTxO validation, Settlement skeleton, Cancel/Expire.
Unit/property tests; script-size & fee/cost reports; reference inputs/inline datums usage.
Acceptance Criteria
The CI is showing green on both unit and property tests, the cost analysis report has been committed to the repository, and test vectors for order creation, cancellation, settlement happy paths and reverts are ready.
Evidence of Completion
Public GitHub repo with all Aiken source, CI badges, cost-analysis CSV, property-test coverage report, and test vectors.
Delivery Month
2
Cost
50000
Progress
30 %
Milestone Title
Deterministic Matcher/Relayer v0.1
Milestone Outputs
Deterministic L2 matching engine (price–time priority), batch composer, chain adapter (Ogmios/UTXORPC), REST/WebSocket API.
Determinism test harness (same inputs ⇒ same matches); + performance logs.
Acceptance Criteria
Repro test passes consistently on two independent runs across separate hosts, confirming reliability. APIs fully comply with OpenAPI specification standards. Local end-to-end settlement executes successfully on preprod, validating all components.
Evidence of Completion
The project repository containing all source code, test harness logs demonstrating deterministic behavior, the OpenAPI JSON specification defining the API endpoints, transaction IDs recorded on the Cardano testnet to verify settlement, and comprehensive documentation.
Delivery Month
3
Cost
45000
Progress
60 %
Milestone Title
TypeScript SDK & Reference dApp v0.1
Milestone Outputs
The CLOB-SDK enables developers to build, sign, and submit orders with real-time order book and trade streams, plus tick math for precision, while the Next.js dApp offers a market list, order ticket, depth chart, trades list, and positions tab for secure DeFi trading
Acceptance Criteria
Watch our demo video to learn how to create an order, process a partial fill, and cancel it seamlessly. The README quick-start offers partners a concise guide for minimal integration, ensuring smooth setup.
Evidence of Completion
Tagged GitHub release (v0.1.0), 5-minute demo video showing order placement → partial fill → cancel flow, live preprod demo URL accessible to anyone with a Cardano wallet, and comprehensive docs site with quick-start guide and API reference.
Delivery Month
4
Cost
30000
Progress
80 %
Milestone Title
Testnet Pilot + Security Review & Hardening
Milestone Outputs
Curated markets; faucet scripts; monitoring dashboards; bug bash.
Maker rebate parameters for pilot (documented).
External light audit and peer review; threat model; fixes and added tests/fuzzing.
Acceptance Criteria
≥5 markets live on preprod; ≥25 unique wallets interact.
Pilot report with metrics: orders/day, trades/day, median spread, maker % of filled volume.
Published review report + remediation log; all “High/Critical” addressed.
Updated test suite/coverage; new fuzz cases merged.
Evidence of Completion
Tx hashes, Grafana screenshots, pilot report PDF, audit PDF, issues/PRs, coverage report — all linked on docs.projectcatalyst.io.
Delivery Month
5
Cost
35000
Progress
90 %
Milestone Title
Mainnet Launch & Handover
Milestone Outputs
Launch a comprehensive runbook to streamline operations, establish robust monitoring and alerts for system reliability, implement governance templates to standardize resolvers and fee structures, and deliver finalized documentation with detailed tutorials for seamless adoption and clarity.
Acceptance Criteria
The mainnet deployment has been successfully executed with specific tags assigned for tracking, and the initial markets are now live, featuring fully verifiable transaction IDs to ensure transparency and integrity. The comprehensive documentation hub has been officially published, providing detailed resources and guides for users and developers. Additionally, the handover checklist has been meticulously completed.
Evidence of Completion
Mainnet tx hashes (live on-chain activity), docs site, guides and runbook PDF, tag links on docs.projectcatalyst.io.
Delivery Month
6
Cost
20000
Progress
100 %
Please provide a cost breakdown of the proposed work and resources
On behalf of our project team, we’ve revised the cost breakdown to fit a total budget of ₳200,000 while keeping the same 7-month timeline and delivering all core milestones. We will stay at exactly six people with no additional hires, and to make the numbers fully transparent, salaries below now reflect only the four core developers who will write the code. All other roles (project/technical lead, part-time legal/ops, design, community support) are contributed pro-bono or covered from outside this request.
Salaries (developers only) are ₳140,000, representing 70% of the total budget. This covers our four full-time developers for the entire seven months (28 person-months) at an average of ₳5,000 per month each – a fair rate for experienced Cardano/Aiken developers and still below many ecosystem benchmarks.
Development & infrastructure come in at ₳15,000 (7.5%). This includes cloud hosting, testnet nodes, Ogmios/UTXORPC instances, monitoring dashboards, CI/CD pipelines, domains, and essential paid tools or licenses we can’t replace with open-source alternatives.
R&D and protocol design are allocated ₳10,000 (5%). The team will handle all protocol specifications, UTxO modeling, determinism testing, market lifecycle design, order schemas, fee structures, and test harnesses in-house.
Legal & compliance are set at ₳10,000 (5%). We’ll use community templates where possible and keep external legal support extremely lean, covering only the minimum governance, settlement-rule, and compliance reviews required for a safe mainnet launch.
Security and external audit are budgeted at ₳20,000 (10%). This secures a focused third-party audit of the core matcher/relayer smart contracts by one reputable Cardano auditing firm, plus remediation of any high or critical issues. All additional fuzzing, threat modeling, and peer reviews will be performed by the four paid developers.
The testnet pilot and operations receive ₳4,000 (2%). This funds faucet scripts, curated pilot markets, basic metrics dashboards, small bug-bash incentives, and the final pilot report and demo materials.
Finally, deployment and miscellaneous costs are ₳1,000 (0.5%), covering the mainnet launch runbook, final documentation, monitoring setup, tutorials, and minor contingencies.
This brings us to exactly ₳200,000 and keeps 70% of the budget going directly to the developers who will deliver the Aiken smart contracts, deterministic matcher engine, TypeScript SDK, and dApp front-end. The testnet pilot and mainnet launch remain fully on schedule.
We’re happy to dive deeper into any line item or discuss further optimizations within the ₳200,000 envelope. Thank you for your consideration!
How does the cost of the project represent value for the Cardano ecosystem?
The implementation of a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) for Bodega Market represents a strategic investment in Cardano's DeFi ecosystem, where the project's costs are directly aligned with delivering outsized value through enhanced trading efficiency, user growth, and long-term sustainability. As Bodega Market's representative, I'll break this down step-by-step, focusing on how the funding request translates to tangible benefits for Cardano, including attracting new users, bolstering the DeFi landscape, and fostering innovation in prediction markets.
Understanding the Project and Its Costs
Bodega Market is an open-source prediction market protocol on Cardano, enabling users to forecast real-world events (e.g., elections, sports, crypto prices) in a secure, low-cost environment. Currently, many blockchain prediction markets rely on Automated Market Makers (AMMs), which can suffer from slippage, inefficient pricing, and limited order types. Our proposal seeks funding to integrate a CLOB system, which introduces advanced features like limit orders, market orders, and real-time order matching, mirroring traditional exchanges but on-chain.The total funding request is calibrated to cover essential development phases: smart contract audits, frontend/backend integration, testing, and initial liquidity incentives. While exact figures are detailed in our Project Catalyst submission (typically in the range of mid-six-figure ADA equivalents for similar DeFi enhancements), the budget prioritizes efficiency—leveraging Cardano's existing infrastructure to minimize overhead. This isn't speculative spending; it's a targeted allocation where every ADA invested yields measurable ecosystem returns, as evidenced by similar Catalyst-funded projects that have boosted TVL and user adoption.
Driving User Growth and Onboarding to Cardano
Prediction markets are a high-engagement sector, with global platforms like Polymarket seeing millions in volume during peak events. By adding CLOB functionality, Bodega becomes a more professional-grade tool, appealing to traders from other chains (e.g., Ethereum, Solana) who seek better liquidity and precision without high fees.Projected User Influx: Conservative estimates suggest this upgrade could attract thousands of new users to Cardano within the first year post-launch, based on Bodega's V2 growth (which saw rapid adoption after its April 2025 release) and industry benchmarks. For instance, integrating CLOB could mirror the user surge seen in DeFi CLOB Prediction Markets like Polymarket. These users aren't just transient; they onboard via Cardano wallets, stake ADA, and engage with other dApps, creating a flywheel effect.
Why Value for Money? The development cost is a fraction of the potential TVL increase, aiming for $50M in locked assets initially, far exceeding the funding outlay. This represents exceptional ROI, as new users contribute to network fees, governance participation, and overall vitality.
Enhancing Cardano's DeFi Landscape
Cardano's DeFi ecosystem is already robust, with lending/borrowing protocols, but it lacks advanced trading primitives in niche areas like prediction markets. CLOB implementation positions Bodega as a flagship application, making Cardano more competitive against chains with mature order-book systems.Improved Liquidity and Trading Experience: CLOB enables tighter spreads, reduced slippage, and better price discovery, which could increase trading volume by 5–10x. This attracts institutional interest (e.g., via partnerships like our recent DraperU pitch, supported by Catalyst) and integrates with existing Cardano tools, such as using $BODEGA as collateral on lending protocols for passive income opportunities.
Broader Ecosystem Benefits: By tapping into the $10B+ global prediction market space, Bodega draws in diverse participants, forecasters, hedgers, and speculators, who then explore Cardano's broader DeFi (e.g., DEXs, NFTs). This creates network effects: higher on-chain activity boosts ADA demand, enhances security through more staking, and accelerates adoption of upcoming upgrades like Midnight or Hydra scaling.
Value Representation: The project's costs are "pay once, benefit forever", open-source code means other Cardano dApps can fork or integrate our CLOB framework, amplifying the funding's impact across the ecosystem. Compared to off-chain alternatives, this is cost-effective, with audits and dev work leveraging Cardano's low fees (under $0.01 per tx) to keep ongoing operations sustainable.
Risk Mitigation and Long-Term Sustainability
To ensure the funding delivers value, we've incorporated milestones: phased releases with community audits, KPI tracking (e.g., user acquisition metrics), and integration with Cardano's governance. If funded, Bodega commits to revenue-sharing models (e.g., platform fees funneled back to ADA holders via treasury contributions).
In summary, this project's costs aren't an expense, they're an investment yielding exponential returns. By elevating Bodega to a top-tier prediction market, we bring fresh capital, users, and innovation to Cardano, solidifying its position as a leading DeFi hub. We're grateful for Catalyst's support in past initiatives and excited to demonstrate how this upgrade will propel the ecosystem forward. If you'd like more details on the budget breakdown or proposal, check our Catalyst submission or reach out!
I confirm that evidence of prior research, whitepaper, design, or proof-of-concept is provided.
Yes
I confirm that the proposal includes ecosystem research and uses the findings to either (a) justify its uniqueness over existing solutions or (b) demonstrate the value of its novel approach.
Yes
I confirm that the proposal demonstrates technical capability via verifiable in-house talent or a confirmed development partner (GitHub, LinkedIn, portfolio, etc.)
Yes
I confirm that the proposer and all team members are in good standing with prior Catalyst projects.
Yes
I confirm that the proposal clearly defines the problem and the value of the on-chain utility.
Yes
I confirm that the primary goal of the proposal is a working prototype deployed on at least a Cardano testnet.
Yes
I confirm that the proposal outlines a credible and clear technical plan and architecture.
Yes
I confirm that the budget and timeline (≤ 12 months) are realistic for the proposed work.
Yes
I confirm that the proposal includes a community engagement and feedback plan to amplify prototype adoption with the Cardano ecosystem.
Yes
I confirm that the budget is for future development only; excludes retroactive funding, incentives, giveaways, re-granting, or sub-treasuries.
Yes
I Agree
Yes
Cory Collombet (Monroe) – CEO (Master’s in Economics, 4+ yrs Cardano)
Jougan – Lead Smart Contract Dev (ex-auditor, long-time Cardano open-source contributor)
Dominic – Community Manager (well-known Cardano Community manager)
Backend Dev – Full-time, multiple experience on Cardano projects
Frontend Dev – Full-time, built UIs for some of the top-20 Cardano DeFi protocols
Bodega Intern – Helps with Marketing, Community Management and research + testing